AbbVie’s Humira sales slipped last year as the Big Pharma dealt with the first real generic erosion of its immunology megablockbuster, but its backup meds will be more than enough to not just shore up its revenue—but also boost its top line.
That’s according to a new report out by analysts at GlobalData. The firm, which estimates that sales of Humira over its more than 20-year life have hit a staggering $187 billion, drilled down the drug’s bleak sales future.
Having lost U.S. patent protection at the start of last year, the drug’s revenue dropped to $14.4 billion in 2023, down from the record $21.2 billion it made the year before, with an even steeper decline coming in 2024. As GlobalData notes, this major drop in Humira receipts precipitated a 7% drop in AbbVie’s overall revenue for that year. But there is another hope for company; two, in fact, in the form of Skyrizi and Rinvoq.
If you have ever been on an investor call for AbbVie over the past decade or so, you have seared in your memory the question, “What are you going to do when Humira loses its patent protection?”
Well, AbbVie has been working on a double threat and in the past five years has seen approvals for its follow-ups.
The IL-23 inhibitor Skyrizi, first approved in 2019 by the FDA, brought in $7.7 billion in sales last year, itself a jump of 50% on its 2022 revenue. JAK inhibitor Rinvoq, also approved in 2019, isn’t matching its big brother but still saw revenue hit $3.96 billion in 2023, up 58% year-over-year.
Nearing $12 billion around four years after launch is an impressive feat, but GlobalData reckons there is much more to come.
Skyrizi sales are forecast to peak in 2030, reaching $19.7 billion, just several billion dollars shy of Humira’s peak, while Rinvoq’s bottom line is set to peak at $12.3 billion by the decade’s end, collectively bringing in a cool $32 billion.
“With the forecast success of both Skyrizi and Rinvoq, AbbVie is predicted to recover from the 2023 drop in sales,” the GlobalData report states. “By 2030, the company is forecast to generate total revenue of $75.4 billion, a 39% increase from 2023.”
By that time, when Humira sales will be negligible, Skyrizi and Rinvoq are set to account for a full 42% of AbbVie’s total revenue.
“Like Humira, Skyrizi and Rinvoq are within AbbVie’s immunology portfolio and cover Humira’s major indications, such as psoriasis and arthritis,” said Jasper Morley, pharma analyst at GlobalData.
“Given their 2030 drug expiries, these drugs are estimated to not only bolster sales for an extended period of time but […] are [also] poised for long-term sales growth, enabling the company to not only financially recover from Humira’s expiry, but to also continue its position as a formidable player within the immunology therapy area.”